Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 9.681954e-05 0.000114 0.000133 0.000154 0.000178 0.000202 0.000231
2024-12-29 7.220265e-05 0.000095 0.000122 0.000153 0.000190 0.000231 0.000280
2025-01-05 6.025365e-05 0.000086 0.000116 0.000154 0.000199 0.000251 0.000314
2025-01-12 4.693499e-05 0.000073 0.000106 0.000148 0.000201 0.000262 0.000339
2025-01-19 4.179018e-05 0.000069 0.000105 0.000153 0.000213 0.000285 0.000377
2025-01-26 3.303584e-05 0.000060 0.000096 0.000147 0.000212 0.000292 0.000395
2025-02-02 2.865959e-05 0.000056 0.000094 0.000148 0.000220 0.000309 0.000425
2025-02-09 2.392964e-05 0.000050 0.000089 0.000146 0.000224 0.000321 0.000448
2025-02-16 2.200449e-05 0.000049 0.000090 0.000152 0.000236 0.000344 0.000486
2025-02-23 1.914840e-05 0.000046 0.000088 0.000153 0.000243 0.000359 0.000515
2025-03-02 1.524506e-05 0.000040 0.000082 0.000147 0.000241 0.000363 0.000528
2025-03-09 1.265991e-05 0.000037 0.000078 0.000146 0.000243 0.000372 0.000548
2025-03-16 1.040189e-05 0.000034 0.000075 0.000145 0.000248 0.000386 0.000577
2025-03-23 8.776306e-06 0.000031 0.000074 0.000147 0.000256 0.000405 0.000611
2025-03-30 7.007674e-06 0.000028 0.000071 0.000145 0.000260 0.000416 0.000636
2025-04-06 5.205453e-06 0.000025 0.000066 0.000141 0.000259 0.000422 0.000654
2025-04-13 4.529342e-06 0.000024 0.000066 0.000145 0.000269 0.000444 0.000692
2025-04-20 3.173662e-06 0.000020 0.000061 0.000140 0.000266 0.000446 0.000705
2025-04-27 2.534705e-06 0.000019 0.000060 0.000140 0.000272 0.000461 0.000735
2025-05-04 1.882181e-06 0.000017 0.000058 0.000139 0.000275 0.000472 0.000759
2025-05-11 1.675583e-06 0.000017 0.000059 0.000144 0.000288 0.000497 0.000803
2025-05-18 1.315506e-06 0.000016 0.000058 0.000145 0.000294 0.000513 0.000835
2025-05-25 7.920308e-07 0.000013 0.000053 0.000140 0.000290 0.000513 0.000845